Three major Canadian banks expressed optimistic views on the economy, in contrast to concerns from numerous small businesses facing challenges due to a trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results on Thursday. With combined assets totaling up to $6 trillion, these banking giants hold extensive portfolios of loans and have a broad client base across Canada and the U.S., giving them a unique perspective on the impact of tariffs.
RBC’s CEO Dave McKay highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy and maintained a cautiously positive outlook based on improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter, despite ongoing uncertainties with the U.S. He noted that the average effective tariff rate remains low, with a significant portion of exports staying duty-free.
TD Bank’s CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects. Chun emphasized that trade tensions have not hindered investment opportunities, with potential for significant activity over the next decade.
CIBC’s CEO Harry Culham expressed confidence in the latter half of 2026 while remaining vigilant about the evolving trade landscape. CIBC is closely monitoring the labor market for any signs of weakness that could impact the economy.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council warned that over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was terminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted that the latest U.S. tariffs could reduce Canadian growth by about half a percentage point, primarily affecting business confidence and investment.
The CEOs of National Bank, Bank of Montreal, and Scotiabank also voiced positive sentiments about Canada’s economic resilience and government initiatives to support businesses affected by tariffs. Despite trade uncertainties, shares of Canada’s major banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to perform well, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF showing significant growth over the past year.