Keir Starmer has returned from his trip to the Far East, successfully securing important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, the trip to Beijing went smoothly, and Downing Street is now shifting its focus to a looming by-election battle in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the historically Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will choose their new MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by Labour’s governing body has raised concerns among MPs about potential repercussions.
There are mixed sentiments among politicians regarding the upcoming by-election. While some fear losing the seat due to the decision on Burnham, others, like Labour MP Karl Turner, remain optimistic about their chances. Turner emphasized the importance of winning the by-election to alleviate pressure on party leadership.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the by-election, citing four key players: Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party. He noted the shift in Labour’s traditional stronghold due to changes in voter behavior.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, characterized the by-election as a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with tactical voting potentially determining the outcome. The influence of Nigel Farage and Reform UK on the race has further complicated the electoral landscape.
Voters are grappling with the dilemma of tactical voting to counter Reform UK’s influence, leading to a sense of indecision among some segments of the electorate. The outcome of the by-election hinges on strategic voting patterns and the parties’ ability to mobilize their support base effectively.